理悦CEMA•知与行系列研讨会2025年第四讲将于4月11日（周五）中午11：30-13：00在学术会堂712会议室举行，由东北财经大学李剑老师报告“Thus spoke FOMC: The Fed and Sovereign CDS Spreads”，欢迎感兴趣的师生参加。

【题目】：Thus spoke FOMC: The Fed and Sovereign CDS Spreads

【摘要】：We study how sovereign credit default swaps (SCDS) respond to central bank communications. Employing a GPT-based NLP communication measure, we find that dramatic changes in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) hawkish or dovish stance, as conveyed through the FOMC speeches and meeting statements, have provided useful information, influencing the trajectory of SCDS spreads. When the FOMC is already in an extremely hawkish or dovish position, the market overreacts and requires time to absorb the information and take appropriate actions. Asymmetries exist in the direction of central bank communications. The hawkish voice shifts provide signals, meanwhile, the dovish tone shifts indicate noises. Our findings highlight the significance of the application of large language models and provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank guidance.

【报告人简介】：李剑，东北财经大学高等经济研究院副教授，博士毕业于德国法兰克福大学。主要研究领域为家庭金融、资本流动和老龄化、金融稳定和创新经济学。研究成果发表于European Economic Review, Journal of Empirical Finance, Economics Letters, China Economic Review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change等期刊。

【时间】：2025年4月11日（周五）11:30-13:00

【地点】：中央财经大学学院南路校区学术会堂712会议室

中国经济与管理研究院

2025年4月3日