CEMA研讨会2019年秋季第十二讲将于12月2日（周一）中午12:10-1:30在712会议室举行，由清华大学五道口金融学院张福栋助理教授报告论文“Understanding the housing market: the investment aspect”，欢迎感兴趣的师生参加。

【题目】：Understanding the housing market: the investment aspect

【摘要】：The macro-housing literature generally finds the U.S. housing cycles, particularly the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession, are too volatile to be reconcilable by changes in fundamental as well as financial factors with rational expectation models. The few papers that do provide mechanisms that could generate large price movements bear little data support from both the cross-section of households and aggregate timing of events. This paper proposes a new mechanism that highlights the role played by household portfolio decision to allocate their wealth to second homes for investment purposes in generating housing demand, and therefore housing price, fluctuations. The result of this paper shows that this component of housing demand can amplify housing price response to changes in financial factors such as interest rates, loan to value ratio, as well as mortgage premium. The model is able to quantitatively explain the swings in housing price in the 2000s, and at the same time match salient features in both household and aggregate data.

【报告人简介】：张福栋，清华大学五道口金融学院助理教授。2006年进入中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院数理经济与数理金融实验班，2010年获经济学学士学位，2016年获美国密西根大学经济学博士。研究领域为宏观经济学和国际经济学。

中国经济与管理研究院
2019年11月28日